Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

357.06 – 457.08

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

489 – 472

Prediction missed · off by 73.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.3 ±11.2

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 222.78Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX -23.49Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 157.77Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±9.9

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 213.02Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 124.34Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 119.72Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2122, 8158, 4421

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.1 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2122, 8158, 4421

Auto

74.1 21%

Teleop

190.4 55%

Endgame

81.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2200, 2601, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

457.1 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2200, 2601, 7250

Auto

77.6 18%

Teleop

267.0 62%

Endgame

89.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score357.1pts

Blue projected score457.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100
Score range: 287–527
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 961 vs event baseline 391.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.3Season APEX693.9

74.1Auto77.6

190.4Teleop267

81.5Endgame89.5

125Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	124
teleop	257	272
endgame	138	76
foul	15	0
total	489	472

Result

Final score

489 – 472

Prediction missed · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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