Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

544.54 – 340.43

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

490 – 510

Prediction missed · off by 112.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.9 ±9.4

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 146.57Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 204.98Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 192.99Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.1 ±9.3

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 110.69Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 110.21Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 119.53Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2846, 6002, 287

/ 100 compat

Projected

544.5 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2846, 6002, 287

Auto

119.6 22%

Teleop

286.0 52%

Endgame

142.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4270, 4122, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.4 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4270, 4122, 9140

Auto

53.9 16%

Teleop

179.5 54%

Endgame

100.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score544.5pts

Blue projected score340.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.1
Score range: 270–615
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1000 vs event baseline 390.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.9Season APEX694.1

119.6Auto53.9

286Teleop179.5

142.2Endgame100.5

116Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	86
teleop	272	312
endgame	118	102
foul	30	10
total	490	510

Result

Final score

490 – 510

Prediction missed · off by 112.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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