Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.35 – 675.21

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

279 – 618

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.7 ±10.5

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 61.82Rank 27Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 30.06Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 132.47Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 938.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 206Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 174.23Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 294.98Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 343, 10101, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.4 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 343, 10101, 3928

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

144.6 65%

Endgame

45.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4476, 1771, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

675.2 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4476, 1771, 2481

Auto

138.3 21%

Teleop

380.3 57%

Endgame

149.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score224.4pts

Blue projected score675.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -450.9
Score range: 154–745
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 897 vs event baseline 389.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519.7Season APEX938.8

32.7Auto138.3

144.6Teleop380.3

45.8Endgame149.6

76Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	139
teleop	139	330
endgame	80	119
foul	0	30
total	279	618

Result

Final score

279 – 618

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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