Qualification · Qualification 116

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.35 – 264.33

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 414

Prediction missed · off by 79 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.8 ±9.3

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 75.25Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 113.9Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 90.2Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.7 ±9.9

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 82.27Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 81.03Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 101.03Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6925, 70, 8873

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6925, 70, 8873

Auto

20.3 7%

Teleop

180.5 65%

Endgame

75.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 353, 8429, 10633

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.3 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 353, 8429, 10633

Auto

62.6 24%

Teleop

139.8 53%

Endgame

60.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score279.4pts

Blue projected score264.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15
Score range: 194–349
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 390.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.8Season APEX553.7

20.3Auto62.6

180.5Teleop139.8

75.8Endgame60.2

111Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	74
teleop	135	190
endgame	106	150
foul	0	0
total	271	414

Result

Final score

271 – 414

Prediction missed · off by 79 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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