Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

524.31 – 449.54

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

522 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 974.6 ±14.3

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 120.44Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 276.71Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 127.16Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 772.7 ±8.7

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 206.44Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 21.69Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 221.41Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3075, 1678, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

524.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3075, 1678, 1671

Auto

97.0 19%

Teleop

285.1 56%

Endgame

128.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6090, 9644, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6090, 9644, 4481

Auto

86.4 19%

Teleop

261.8 58%

Endgame

102.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score524.3pts

Blue projected score449.5pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 380–594
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1008 vs event baseline 389.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

974.6Season APEX772.7

97Auto86.4

285.1Teleop261.8

128.9Endgame102.9

114Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	90
teleop	260	261
endgame	91	120
foul	30	15
total	522	486

Result

Final score

522 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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