Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.1 – 413.58

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

229 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.9 ±11.7

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX -0.52Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 135.92Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 109.7Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.3 ±9.8

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 40.14Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 219.73Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 153.71Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 4907, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10950, 4907, 263

Auto

53.3 24%

Teleop

95.5 43%

Endgame

73.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2169, 4499, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2169, 4499, 2905

Auto

109.7 27%

Teleop

215.1 53%

Endgame

80.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score245.1pts

Blue projected score413.6pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -168.5
Score range: 175–484
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 712 vs event baseline 387.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.9Season APEX695.3

53.3Auto109.7

95.5Teleop215.1

73.4Endgame80.1

164Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	97
teleop	67	268
endgame	95	113
foul	0	5
total	229	483

Result

Final score

229 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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