Qualification · Qualification 111

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

505.69 – 276.23

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

527 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 762.9 ±8.7

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 172.26Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 172.68Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 160.75Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.8 ±10.5

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 28.38Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 155.4Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 92.45Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1640, 686, 2974

/ 100 compat

Projected

505.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1640, 686, 2974

Auto

84.8 17%

Teleop

254.2 50%

Endgame

167.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10604, 4915, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.2 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10604, 4915, 6989

Auto

51.3 19%

Teleop

157.6 58%

Endgame

63.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score505.7pts

Blue projected score276.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.5
Score range: 206–576
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 857 vs event baseline 389.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

762.9Season APEX604.8

84.8Auto51.3

254.2Teleop157.6

167.1Endgame63.4

158Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	38
teleop	262	185
endgame	120	107
foul	60	0
total	527	330

Result

Final score

527 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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