Qualification · Qualification 110

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

420.61 – 491.87

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

534 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 754.8 ±14.3

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 173.29Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 135.51Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 111.81Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 744.2 ±9.3

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 150.33Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 191.61Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 149.93Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 2846, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.6 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7039, 2846, 9140

Auto

93.4 23%

Teleop

229.4 56%

Endgame

89.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4421, 7426, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 4421, 7426, 4362

Auto

76.0 16%

Teleop

280.6 58%

Endgame

128.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.59 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score420.6pts

Blue projected score491.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.3
Score range: 351–562
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1112 vs event baseline 388.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

754.8Season APEX744.2

93.4Auto76

229.4Teleop280.6

89.7Endgame128.7

110Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	103
teleop	260	337
endgame	158	133
foul	20	5
total	534	578

Result

Final score

534 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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