Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.24 – 238.96

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 718.4 ±9.8

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 124.94Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 103.62Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 123.68Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.7 ±9.8

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 114.15Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 37.93Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 86.88Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1671, 4270, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.2 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1671, 4270, 3928

Auto

53.2 15%

Teleop

199.5 57%

Endgame

95.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7890, 2169, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

239 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 7890, 2169, 8808

Auto

38.8 17%

Teleop

142.0 62%

Endgame

49.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score352.2pts

Blue projected score239pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.3
Score range: 170–421
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 673 vs event baseline 386.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

718.4Season APEX518.7

53.2Auto38.8

199.5Teleop142

95.9Endgame49.1

77Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	50
teleop	238	112
endgame	114	61
foul	45	0
total	450	223

Result

Final score

450 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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