Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.23 – 251.64

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.6 ±10.2

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 44.71Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 203.49Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 63.03Rank 27Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.2 ±10.5

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 40.53Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 110.64Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 100.47Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5985, 7457, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.2 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 5985, 7457, 343

Auto

63.6 20%

Teleop

185.3 59%

Endgame

64.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7763, 263, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7763, 263, 8020

Auto

35.4 15%

Teleop

143.5 60%

Endgame

59.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score311.2pts

Blue projected score251.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.6
Score range: 182–381
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 386.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

638.6Season APEX456.2

63.6Auto35.4

185.3Teleop143.5

64.8Endgame59.6

88Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	57
teleop	234	155
endgame	34	49
foul	5	0
total	350	261

Result

Final score

350 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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