Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.49 – 351.45

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 156.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.1 ±11.7

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 55.15Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 22.34Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 71Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 692.8 ±9.3

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 44.08Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 176.43Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 130.94Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2403, 11065, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.5 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2403, 11065, 3245

Auto

46.7 34%

Teleop

51.1 37%

Endgame

40.0 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9644, 2905, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9644, 2905, 3637

Auto

75.5 22%

Teleop

196.9 57%

Endgame

73.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score148.5pts

Blue projected score351.5pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -203
Score range: 78–421
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 388.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.1Season APEX692.8

46.7Auto75.5

51.1Teleop196.9

40Endgame73.2

95Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	45
teleop	168	65
endgame	45	50
foul	0	0
total	270	160

Result

Final score

270 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 156.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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