Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

757.89 – 552.34

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

553 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1049.9 ±9.3

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 180.87Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 292.43Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 284.59Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.8 ±8.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 157.13Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 213.09Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 182.12Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 2481, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

757.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4915, 2481, 1678

Auto

152.5 20%

Teleop

412.1 55%

Endgame

183.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 686, 4481, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

552.3 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 686, 4481, 3707

Auto

103.3 19%

Teleop

315.2 58%

Endgame

128.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score757.9pts

Blue projected score552.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 205.5
Score range: 478–832
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1101 vs event baseline 409.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1049.9Season APEX794.8

152.5Auto103.3

412.1Teleop315.2

183.1Endgame128.8

75Consistency173

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	159
teleop	228	291
endgame	232	98
foul	0	0
total	553	548

Result

Final score

553 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 pts

Match videos

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