Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
310.18 – 356.33
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
317 – 341
Prediction correct · off by 11.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.3 ±9.9
Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 129.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 165.01Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62Event APEX 16.12Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.7 ±9.9
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 4.63Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 166.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 184.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1023, 3620, 10181
82
/ 100 compatProjected
310.2 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 1023, 3620, 10181
Auto
59.0 19%
Teleop
184.1 59%
Endgame
68.7 22%
Strengths
- · 3620 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10642, 7220, 10633
83
/ 100 compatProjected
356.3 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 10642, 7220, 10633
Auto
77.6 22%
Teleop
191.9 55%
Endgame
82.1 23%
Strengths
- · 10633 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score310.2pts
Blue projected score356.3pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -46.1
- Score range
- 280–386
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
537.3Season APEX500.7
59Auto77.6
184.1Teleop191.9
68.7Endgame82.1
40Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 61 | 60 |
| teleop | 177 | 194 |
| endgame | 64 | 67 |
| foul | 15 | 20 |
| total | 317 | 341 |
Result
Final score
317 – 341
Prediction correct · off by 11.1 pts
Match videos
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