Qualification · Qualification 78
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
220.13 – 245.96
42%58%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
290 – 178
Prediction missed · off by 68.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 127.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 62.03Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 30.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.7 ±12.2
Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 102.19Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 36.89Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 106.88Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1023, 8423, 8767
73
/ 100 compatProjected
220.1 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 1023, 8423, 8767
Auto
35.7 16%
Teleop
137.6 62%
Endgame
47.1 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7656, 7289, 858
83
/ 100 compatProjected
246 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 7656, 7289, 858
Auto
46.5 19%
Teleop
122.3 50%
Endgame
74.2 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.79
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score220.1pts
Blue projected score246pts
Red win probability42%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -25.8
- Score range
- 191–275
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
415.1Season APEX259.7
35.7Auto46.5
137.6Teleop122.3
47.1Endgame74.2
10Consistency38
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 55 | 27 |
| teleop | 174 | 108 |
| endgame | 61 | 43 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 290 | 178 |
Result
Final score
290 – 178
Prediction missed · off by 68.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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