FIM District Kentwood Event presented by Dematic

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.86 – 127.61

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±12.7

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 63.77Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9549The Mechadogs

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 19.09Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9756Robo Panthers

Season APEX 99Event APEX 53Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216 ±12.2

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 108.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11399Timber Tech

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX -4.07Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 23.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5980, 9549, 9756

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5980, 9549, 9756

Auto

26.9 20%

Teleop

71.0 53%

Endgame

35.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 858, 11399, 9685

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 858, 11399, 9685

Auto

30.4 24%

Teleop

56.2 45%

Endgame

37.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.9pts

Blue projected score127.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 99–165
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231Season APEX216

26.9Auto30.4

71Teleop56.2

35.8Endgame37.8

28Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	54
teleop	60	72
endgame	22	60
foul	0	0
total	112	186

Result

Final score

112 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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