Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
176.79 – 201.2
42%58%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
12 – 278
Prediction correct · off by 120.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.1 ±13.3
Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 70.65Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 12.95Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 93.19Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.5 ±11.2
Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 166.54Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 18.08Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 16.58Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9206, 11399, 6081
70
/ 100 compatProjected
176.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9206, 11399, 6081
Auto
22.9 13%
Teleop
82.3 47%
Endgame
68.5 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3620, 7808, 8767
77
/ 100 compatProjected
201.2 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3620, 7808, 8767
Auto
25.1 12%
Teleop
120.7 59%
Endgame
58.9 29%
Strengths
- · 3620 anchors offense
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.78
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score176.8pts
Blue projected score201.2pts
Red win probability42%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -24.4
- Score range
- 148–230
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
211.1Season APEX388.5
22.9Auto25.1
82.3Teleop120.7
68.5Endgame58.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 32 |
| teleop | 1 | 184 |
| endgame | 0 | 62 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 12 | 278 |
Result
Final score
12 – 278
Prediction correct · off by 120.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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