Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
114.71 – 67.78
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
92 – 105
Prediction missed · off by 30 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 287 ±12.4
Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 30.01Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 79.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 5.27Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 79.43Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 5.27Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92.3Event APEX -16.92Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11399, 5166, 10664
51
/ 100 compatProjected
114.7 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 11399, 5166, 10664
Auto
20.5 18%
Teleop
46.1 41%
Endgame
46.5 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5256, 9685, 8767
41
/ 100 compatProjected
67.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 5256, 9685, 8767
Auto
13.3 21%
Teleop
26.1 41%
Endgame
25.0 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score114.7pts
Blue projected score67.8pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 46.9
- Score range
- 36–147
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
287Season APEX228.8
20.5Auto13.3
46.1Teleop26.1
46.5Endgame25
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 34 |
| teleop | 61 | 38 |
| endgame | 18 | 33 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 92 | 105 |
Result
Final score
92 – 105
Prediction missed · off by 30 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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