FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.74 – 114.56

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±11.1

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 100.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 19.13Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 77.04Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.3 ±11.2

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 66.68Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 21.17Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 5167, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 5167, 5561

Auto

30.0 16%

Teleop

109.7 57%

Endgame

53.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 494, 8385, 8767

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 8385, 8767

Auto

21.3 18%

Teleop

59.8 52%

Endgame

34.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.7pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.2
Score range: 91–221
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 133.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.4Season APEX405.3

30Auto21.3

109.7Teleop59.8

53Endgame34.7

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	16
teleop	110	52
endgame	45	45
foul	5	0
total	203	113

Result

Final score

203 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 pts

Match videos

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