FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.78 – 131.11

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.3 ±11.2

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 66.49Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 21.11Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±13.3

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 65.59Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 28.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 36.84Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 494, 8385, 8767

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 8385, 8767

Auto

20.4 18%

Teleop

59.4 52%

Endgame

35.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5612, 10547, 9242

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 10547, 9242

Auto

27.2 21%

Teleop

68.6 54%

Endgame

31.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.8pts

Blue projected score131.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.3
Score range: 90–155
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.3Season APEX209.3

20.4Auto27.2

59.4Teleop68.6

35.3Endgame31.3

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	29
teleop	56	55
endgame	33	21
foul	0	0
total	117	105

Result

Final score

117 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 pts

Match videos

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