FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.69 – 137.59

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±13.3

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 17.11Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 25.07Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 35.51Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±11.7

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 56.54Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 23.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 57.93Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5150, 7784, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5150, 7784, 7772

Auto

22.7 31%

Teleop

37.5 51%

Endgame

12.9 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 4998, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 4998, 1322

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

80.6 63%

Endgame

31.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score137.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.9
Score range: 54–162
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 130.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.1Season APEX328.1

22.7Auto15.9

37.5Teleop80.6

12.9Endgame31.6

10Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	22
teleop	26	95
endgame	19	42
foul	0	0
total	68	159

Result

Final score

68 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.