FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.11 – 139.23

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±10.5

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 91.92Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 35.7Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 105.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±13.3

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 68.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 31.35Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 39.79Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9757, 9648, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9757, 9648, 5660

Auto

17.6 8%

Teleop

131.1 59%

Endgame

73.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5612, 10547, 9242

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 10547, 9242

Auto

27.1 20%

Teleop

72.7 54%

Endgame

34.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score233.1pts

Blue projected score139.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.9
Score range: 116–256
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 130.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.1Season APEX209.3

17.6Auto27.1

131.1Teleop72.7

73.6Endgame34.7

17Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	171	53
endgame	55	19
foul	0	0
total	243	100

Result

Final score

243 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Match videos

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