Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
273.28 – 119.38
87%13%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
326 – 97
Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.4 ±11
Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 124.9Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 23.32Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 125.06Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.3 ±11.2
Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 68.25Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 28.2Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 22.93Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5046, 5235, 894
81
/ 100 compatProjected
273.3 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5046, 5235, 894
Auto
48.8 18%
Teleop
157.2 58%
Endgame
63.4 24%
Strengths
- · 894 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 494, 8385, 8767
59
/ 100 compatProjected
119.4 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 494, 8385, 8767
Auto
22.2 18%
Teleop
63.8 53%
Endgame
35.3 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.77
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score273.3pts
Blue projected score119.4pts
Red win probability87%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 153.9
- Score range
- 96–296
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
347.4Season APEX405.3
48.8Auto22.2
157.2Teleop63.8
63.4Endgame35.3
29Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 15 |
| teleop | 181 | 45 |
| endgame | 80 | 37 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 326 | 97 |
Result
Final score
326 – 97
Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts
Match videos
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