FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.8 – 132.08

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±11.1

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 94.98Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 13.94Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 71.88Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±11.7

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 54.39Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 21.7Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 55.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 5167, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 5167, 5561

Auto

28.7 16%

Teleop

96.4 54%

Endgame

54.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 4998, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 4998, 1322

Auto

19.5 15%

Teleop

82.1 64%

Endgame

26.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.8pts

Blue projected score132.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.7
Score range: 109–204
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.4Season APEX328.1

28.7Auto19.5

96.4Teleop82.1

54.4Endgame26.1

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	2
teleop	143	77
endgame	56	52
foul	5	30
total	249	161

Result

Final score

249 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Match videos

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