FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.14 – 79.38

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.6 ±9.3

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 140.73Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 19.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 189.19Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±13.3

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 17.21Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 25.79Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 36.38Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 6085, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 6085, 2337

Auto

56.6 17%

Teleop

219.6 64%

Endgame

64.9 19%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5150, 7784, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5150, 7784, 7772

Auto

23.2 31%

Teleop

41.1 55%

Endgame

10.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score349.1pts

Blue projected score79.4pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 269.8
Score range: 56–372
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.6Season APEX178.1

56.6Auto23.2

219.6Teleop41.1

64.9Endgame10.7

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	22
teleop	269	28
endgame	66	22
foul	0	5
total	409	77

Result

Final score

409 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Match videos

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