FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.86 – 239.6

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.4 ±11

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 128.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 27.18Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 128.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±10.5

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 94.31Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 37.32Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 107.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5046, 5235, 894

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5046, 5235, 894

Auto

54.4 19%

Teleop

152.1 55%

Endgame

72.5 26%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9757, 9648, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9757, 9648, 5660

Auto

19.4 8%

Teleop

138.9 60%

Endgame

72.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score284.9pts

Blue projected score239.6pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.3
Score range: 215–310
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.4Season APEX454.1

54.4Auto19.4

152.1Teleop138.9

72.5Endgame72

13Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	21
teleop	92	142
endgame	36	102
foul	5	0
total	205	265

Result

Final score

205 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 pts

Match videos

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