FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.49 – 197.79

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±10.5

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 91.35Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 34.85Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 105.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±11.1

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 101.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 19.6Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 77.09Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9757, 9648, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9757, 9648, 5660

Auto

19.5 9%

Teleop

135.3 61%

Endgame

66.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 5167, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 5167, 5561

Auto

32.0 17%

Teleop

110.0 57%

Endgame

51.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score197.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.7
Score range: 173–256
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 136.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.1Season APEX366.4

19.5Auto32

135.3Teleop110

66.8Endgame51.6

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	38
teleop	166	159
endgame	108	65
foul	5	0
total	298	262

Result

Final score

298 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts

Match videos

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