Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
360.98 – 283.48
72%28%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
347 – 299
Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 144.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 23.49Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 193.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.4 ±11
Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 128.11Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 26.77Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 128.6Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 68, 6085, 2337
78
/ 100 compatProjected
361 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 68, 6085, 2337
Auto
62.0 17%
Teleop
226.9 64%
Endgame
66.5 19%
Strengths
- · 2337 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5046, 5235, 894
82
/ 100 compatProjected
283.5 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 5046, 5235, 894
Auto
54.1 19%
Teleop
154.0 55%
Endgame
69.5 25%
Strengths
- · 894 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.12
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score361pts
Blue projected score283.5pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 77.5
- Score range
- 259–385
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
564.6Season APEX347.4
62Auto54.1
226.9Teleop154
66.5Endgame69.5
0Consistency14
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 74 | 57 |
| teleop | 205 | 145 |
| endgame | 68 | 92 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 347 | 299 |
Result
Final score
347 – 299
Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts
Match videos
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