FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.38 – 28.22

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±13.3

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 12.03Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 27.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 16.06Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.3 ±13.9

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -25.95Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 25.4Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 28.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5282, 5697, 5150

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5282, 5697, 5150

Auto

21.9 46%

Teleop

17.7 37%

Endgame

8.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10659, 8385, 10547

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10659, 8385, 10547

Auto

12.3 44%

Teleop

4.5 16%

Endgame

11.0 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.4pts

Blue projected score28.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.2
Score range: 5–78
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 127.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX134.3

21.9Auto12.3

17.7Teleop4.5

8.1Endgame11

2Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	24
teleop	23	27
endgame	4	23
foul	5	0
total	68	74

Result

Final score

68 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.