FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.63 – 118.63

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206 ±13.3

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 56.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 27.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 27.72Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.1 ±12.4

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 3.45Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 23.1Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 92.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1322, 10667, 6610

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1322, 10667, 6610

Auto

14.1 13%

Teleop

68.7 64%

Endgame

24.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9697, 7784, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9697, 7784, 1684

Auto

20.0 17%

Teleop

69.2 59%

Endgame

27.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.6pts

Blue projected score118.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7
Score range: 89–142
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206Season APEX330.1

14.1Auto20

68.7Teleop69.2

24.4Endgame27.2

33Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	35
teleop	78	68
endgame	10	49
foul	0	5
total	119	157

Result

Final score

119 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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