FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

69.14 – 52.85

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 23 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.2 ±13.9

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 6Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 45.71Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 17.43Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347 ±12.4

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 15.71Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 17.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 19.71Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10667, 4998, 5214

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 4998, 5214

Auto

10.3 15%

Teleop

35.1 52%

Endgame

22.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 494, 10665, 5282

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 10665, 5282

Auto

16.0 30%

Teleop

24.6 47%

Endgame

12.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score52.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.3
Score range: 31–91
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 76 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.2Season APEX347

10.3Auto16

35.1Teleop24.6

22.3Endgame12.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	22
teleop	12	24
endgame	3	0
foul	5	0
total	30	46

Result

Final score

30 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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