FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179 – 110.64

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.3 ±11.7

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 10.35Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 32.49Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 136.16Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±12.4

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 0.88Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 38.7Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 71.06Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9207, 314, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

179 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9207, 314, 68

Auto

37.6 21%

Teleop

91.3 52%

Endgame

46.7 27%

Strengths

· 68 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5517, 7772, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5517, 7772, 494

Auto

25.0 24%

Teleop

57.9 54%

Endgame

23.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179pts

Blue projected score110.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.4
Score range: 88–202
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.3Season APEX368.8

37.6Auto25

91.3Teleop57.9

46.7Endgame23.4

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	17
teleop	130	54
endgame	51	23
foul	0	0
total	231	94

Result

Final score

231 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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