FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.75 – 153.51

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±12.7

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 22.2Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.88Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 68.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.8 ±10.5

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 19.53Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 40.55Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 93.43Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5235, 11458, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5235, 11458, 5561

Auto

18.9 18%

Teleop

52.4 51%

Endgame

31.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6085, 9242, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6085, 9242, 9757

Auto

14.9 10%

Teleop

80.6 54%

Endgame

53.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.8pts

Blue projected score153.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.8
Score range: 80–177
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 126.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.3Season APEX375.8

18.9Auto14.9

52.4Teleop80.6

31.5Endgame53.4

47Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	67	89
endgame	42	40
foul	0	15
total	134	154

Result

Final score

134 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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