FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.76 – 144.84

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.1 ±11

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 122.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 122.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 10.29Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.1 ±11.7

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 12.56Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 24.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 107.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 894, 5046, 5167

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 894, 5046, 5167

Auto

47.5 19%

Teleop

137.5 56%

Endgame

61.8 25%

Strengths

· 894 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5214, 8767, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5214, 8767, 5660

Auto

17.3 12%

Teleop

80.7 57%

Endgame

42.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.8pts

Blue projected score144.8pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.9
Score range: 122–278
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.1Season APEX334.1

47.5Auto17.3

137.5Teleop80.7

61.8Endgame42.6

61Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	25
teleop	193	104
endgame	57	5
foul	0	0
total	309	134

Result

Final score

309 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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