FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.25 – 84.61

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.7 ±13.9

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 28.78Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 21.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 11.84Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.7 ±12.4

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 12.01Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 53.62Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 18.98Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10547, 4998, 7597

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10547, 4998, 7597

Auto

18.2 31%

Teleop

21.0 36%

Endgame

18.6 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5527, 70, 11527

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 70, 11527

Auto

19.7 23%

Teleop

53.4 63%

Endgame

11.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.3pts

Blue projected score84.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 39–108
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.7Season APEX330.7

18.2Auto19.7

21Teleop53.4

18.6Endgame11

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	18
teleop	39	40
endgame	11	39
foul	0	0
total	77	97

Result

Final score

77 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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