FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.32 – 222.69

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 100.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.9 ±11.7

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 132.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 56.44Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 23.35Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.4 ±12.4

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -9.12Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 208.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 22.98Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 1322, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 1322, 8385

Auto

36.4 17%

Teleop

132.5 63%

Endgame

40.0 19%

Strengths

· 68 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10659, 2337, 10587

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10659, 2337, 10587

Auto

34.8 16%

Teleop

129.1 61%

Endgame

48.5 23%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.3pts

Blue projected score222.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.4
Score range: 189–246
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.9Season APEX326.4

36.4Auto34.8

132.5Teleop129.1

40Endgame48.5

31Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	23
teleop	140	4
endgame	47	6
foul	0	5
total	228	38

Result

Final score

228 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 100.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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