FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.02 – 251.82

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.3 ±12.2

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 121.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 3.69Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 11.41Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.9 ±11.2

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 123.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 95.38Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 33.16Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 894, 8193, 5282

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 894, 8193, 5282

Auto

30.8 22%

Teleop

73.2 53%

Endgame

33.2 24%

Strengths

· 894 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5046, 9757, 314

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5046, 9757, 314

Auto

35.1 14%

Teleop

136.0 54%

Endgame

80.0 32%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137pts

Blue projected score251.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.8
Score range: 114–275
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 126.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.3Season APEX424.9

30.8Auto35.1

73.2Teleop136

33.2Endgame80

21Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	43
teleop	52	101
endgame	13	69
foul	60	15
total	153	228

Result

Final score

153 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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