FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.15 – 61.45

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.2 ±10.7

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 22.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 74.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 91.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.8 ±12.7

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 35.61Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 14.49Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 11.35Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4998, 494, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4998, 494, 1684

Auto

30.8 17%

Teleop

90.6 51%

Endgame

57.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9648, 5150, 7597

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9648, 5150, 7597

Auto

16.2 26%

Teleop

28.2 46%

Endgame

17.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.1pts

Blue projected score61.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.7
Score range: 38–212
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.2Season APEX184.8

30.8Auto16.2

90.6Teleop28.2

57.2Endgame17.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	109	11
endgame	45	5
foul	0	15
total	170	55

Result

Final score

170 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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