FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.76 – 193.42

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.4 ±12.7

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 23.45Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 6.78Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 8.53Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.9 ±11.7

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 70.44Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 72.23Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 50.75Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10667, 9207, 5167

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 9207, 5167

Auto

9.7 25%

Teleop

5.4 14%

Endgame

23.8 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5561, 5612, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5561, 5612, 70

Auto

32.6 17%

Teleop

112.7 59%

Endgame

45.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.8pts

Blue projected score193.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.7
Score range: 16–216
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.4Season APEX388.9

9.7Auto32.6

5.4Teleop112.7

23.8Endgame45.1

7Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	30
teleop	24	121
endgame	29	39
foul	0	0
total	67	190

Result

Final score

67 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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