FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.15 – 50.36

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.2 ±13.3

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 38.4Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 21.37Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 2.38Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±13.9

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 21.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 14.35Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 14.75Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7772, 5235, 9697

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 5235, 9697

Auto

20.0 34%

Teleop

28.2 47%

Endgame

11.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7784, 5527, 5214

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7784, 5527, 5214

Auto

15.1 33%

Teleop

23.7 52%

Endgame

6.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.2pts

Blue projected score50.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.8
Score range: 27–85
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 127.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.2Season APEX180.2

20Auto15.1

28.2Teleop23.7

11.5Endgame6.6

30Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	25	10
endgame	10	3
foul	0	0
total	56	33

Result

Final score

56 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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