FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.82 – 151.56

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±10.7

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 16.49Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 44.52Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 201.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.6 ±12.8

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.74Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 0.49Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 124.33Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4998, 70, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4998, 70, 2337

Auto

38.3 15%

Teleop

164.9 64%

Endgame

54.0 21%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8385, 5517, 894

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8385, 5517, 894

Auto

29.2 19%

Teleop

82.4 54%

Endgame

41.6 27%

Strengths

· 894 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.8pts

Blue projected score151.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.3
Score range: 129–286
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.9Season APEX249.6

38.3Auto29.2

164.9Teleop82.4

54Endgame41.6

51Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	40
teleop	179	75
endgame	58	16
foul	30	0
total	333	131

Result

Final score

333 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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