FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.95 – 41.87

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±12.4

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 37.2Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 19.51Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 94.24Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.2 ±13.9

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 12.78Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 8.65Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 20.44Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7772, 7784, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 7784, 9757

Auto

21.7 15%

Teleop

77.0 55%

Endgame

41.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5214, 5282, 10587

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5214, 5282, 10587

Auto

19.7 49%

Teleop

9.2 23%

Endgame

10.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151pts

Blue projected score41.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.1
Score range: 19–174
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.8Season APEX161.2

21.7Auto19.7

77Teleop9.2

41.5Endgame10.9

6Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	99	24
endgame	51	27
foul	0	0
total	174	64

Result

Final score

174 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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