FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.61 – 97.02

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.2 ±12.7

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 25.24Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 40.42Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 16.95Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226 ±11.6

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 11.75Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 58.81Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 26.46Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5235, 9648, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5235, 9648, 5527

Auto

12.0 15%

Teleop

39.8 49%

Endgame

30.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9207, 1322, 8767

/ 100 compat

Projected

97 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9207, 1322, 8767

Auto

13.6 14%

Teleop

55.0 57%

Endgame

28.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score97pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.4
Score range: 60–120
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.2Season APEX226

12Auto13.6

39.8Teleop55

30Endgame28.3

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	12	28
endgame	14	20
foul	0	0
total	43	66

Result

Final score

43 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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