FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.99 – 178.01

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.9 ±12.2

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 1.99Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 101.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 64.6Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.2 ±11.2

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 135.46Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 14.03Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 28.52Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5167, 5660, 5612

/ 100 compat

Projected

168 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5167, 5660, 5612

Auto

25.4 16%

Teleop

94.9 59%

Endgame

40.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 68, 6085, 6610

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 6085, 6610

Auto

26.0 15%

Teleop

103.4 61%

Endgame

40.1 24%

Strengths

· 68 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168pts

Blue projected score178pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10
Score range: 145–201
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.9Season APEX367.2

25.4Auto26

94.9Teleop103.4

40.6Endgame40.1

71Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	40
teleop	121	137
endgame	89	17
foul	5	0
total	244	194

Result

Final score

244 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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