FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.8 – 102.24

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.7 ±13.9

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 37.35Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -9.67Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 35.12Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±12.4

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -11.45Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 25.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 88.4Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7772, 10659, 314

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 10659, 314

Auto

21.9 40%

Teleop

16.1 30%

Endgame

16.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10665, 5697, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10665, 5697, 1684

Auto

18.0 18%

Teleop

53.3 52%

Endgame

30.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.8pts

Blue projected score102.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 40–125
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.7Season APEX314.7

21.9Auto18

16.1Teleop53.3

16.1Endgame30.4

45Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	40
teleop	22	59
endgame	19	28
foul	0	0
total	64	127

Result

Final score

64 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 13 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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