FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.11 – 175.29

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483 ±10.7

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.41Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 92.04Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 44.66Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±12.8

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 127.12Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 28.53Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 19.64Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8385, 9757, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8385, 9757, 70

Auto

18.0 11%

Teleop

86.5 53%

Endgame

57.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5046, 10667, 11527

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5046, 10667, 11527

Auto

28.9 17%

Teleop

102.8 59%

Endgame

41.3 24%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.1pts

Blue projected score175.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 140–198
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483Season APEX284.8

18Auto28.9

86.5Teleop102.8

57.8Endgame41.3

1Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	25
teleop	101	94
endgame	48	22
foul	0	0
total	173	141

Result

Final score

173 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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