FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.05 – 91.63

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.2 ±13.3

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 8.47Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX -1.09Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 27.67Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.7 ±12.7

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 9.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 69.73Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 12.4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5214, 8193, 10547

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5214, 8193, 10547

Auto

15.9 46%

Teleop

14.5 42%

Endgame

4.0 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9207, 5561, 4998

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9207, 5561, 4998

Auto

14.0 16%

Teleop

43.8 50%

Endgame

29.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.1pts

Blue projected score91.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.6
Score range: 12–115
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.2Season APEX207.7

15.9Auto14

14.5Teleop43.8

4Endgame29.9

26Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	25
teleop	26	34
endgame	20	44
foul	5	10
total	72	113

Result

Final score

72 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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