FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.52 – 137.19

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±11.7

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 57.47Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 34.63Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 58.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.3 ±11

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 1.48Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 107.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 28.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 70, 7772, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 7772, 1322

Auto

25.0 17%

Teleop

91.9 63%

Endgame

29.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8193, 5660, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8193, 5660, 6085

Auto

13.6 10%

Teleop

84.6 65%

Endgame

31.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.5pts

Blue projected score137.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 111–177
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.6Season APEX324.3

25Auto13.6

91.9Teleop84.6

29.3Endgame31.7

58Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	6
teleop	99	24
endgame	23	16
foul	0	0
total	150	46

Result

Final score

150 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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