FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.99 – 86.3

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.5 ±13.3

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 34.38Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 40.23Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 48.38Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.5 ±13.3

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 62.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 18.76Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 5.46Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6610, 314, 9648

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6610, 314, 9648

Auto

18.8 16%

Teleop

61.5 53%

Endgame

35.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5612, 5150, 11458

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 5150, 11458

Auto

21.8 24%

Teleop

46.0 52%

Endgame

21.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123pts

Blue projected score86.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.7
Score range: 63–146
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 128.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.5Season APEX196.5

18.8Auto21.8

61.5Teleop46

35.7Endgame21.4

17Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	20	55
endgame	31	21
foul	5	0
total	76	96

Result

Final score

76 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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