FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.66 – 176.57

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.2 ±9.9

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 66.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 128.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 35.23Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.6 ±11.7

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 21.76Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 90.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 64.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 494, 68, 9242

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 68, 9242

Auto

41.1 18%

Teleop

134.3 60%

Endgame

47.0 21%

Strengths

· 68 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5527, 1684, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 1684, 1322

Auto

19.7 11%

Teleop

104.7 59%

Endgame

51.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score230.7pts

Blue projected score176.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.1
Score range: 154–254
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.2Season APEX370.6

41.1Auto19.7

134.3Teleop104.7

47Endgame51.7

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	34
teleop	153	91
endgame	76	22
foul	35	5
total	309	152

Result

Final score

309 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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