FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.14 – 65.83

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277 ±11.7

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 127.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 12.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 15.56Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.8 ±12.7

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 27.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 10.09Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 27.94Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5046, 4998, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5046, 4998, 6085

Auto

25.2 17%

Teleop

86.3 57%

Endgame

39.5 26%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5697, 9207, 5235

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5697, 9207, 5235

Auto

14.0 21%

Teleop

20.0 30%

Endgame

33.2 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.1pts

Blue projected score65.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.3
Score range: 43–179
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277Season APEX166.8

25.2Auto14

86.3Teleop20

39.5Endgame33.2

71Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	92	26
endgame	50	7
foul	0	5
total	160	61

Result

Final score

160 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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